Oil markets and their impact on ESG issues in the next five years

What do oil market analysts think about the next five years?

If the quotes below are right, tumultuous times lie ahead for transportation, travel and food, amongst other sectors.

See below for some of their headlines.

(I had the email below forwarded to me. I can’t reveal the source, but they are credible analysts who provide advice to the wealthy)

“If our 5-year price deck materializes it will have a quite large effect on most people’s personal economy and their day-to-day consumer decisions. Some effects we can expect are:

• Only wealthy people will drive and fly on holidays, and business travel will collapse

• Transportation of all kinds of goods will be more expensive, so will plastics and hence inflation will rise

• Food prices will also rise, particularly imported food, which in turn will cause riots (similar to what we saw in 2008, only worse)

• Food will no longer to the same extent be grown on the other side of the world for transportation to western kitchens

• Natgas will increase it’s market share on the expense of oil for power generation, industrial production and heating

• Electricity and Natgas will through innovation and political decisions see increasing market share in the transportation sector

• Oil prices may have to rise high enough to create weaker economic growth, first in the OECD but probably also in the non-OECD at the second stage

• An increasing number of non-OECD countries will be forced to cut end-user subsidies, which in the next round will cause oil demand destruction, but also social unrest (ref Burma in 2008)”

1 Comment

  1. I think this email ignores the huge advances in sustainable/renewable energy. Soon oil wouldn't be as important (hopefully). Just my two cents.

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